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May 2010
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November 4, 2010

Dollar in Dire Straits?

Dollar in Dire Straits?

by Vibhas Tattu

The Federal Reserve in Washington has sailed into the blue. As widely expected by many across the world, Fed Chairman Bernake announced a massive tranche of $ 600 billion dollar “bond purchases” ostensibly to boost the flagging US economy and create jobs. This exercise has many politically correct and euphemistic names and economic theories to support it. “Quantitative Easing” is the phrase being used in world media to describe this affair. Since the first installment of the QE was already done by the Fed in 2008 / 2009 to the tune of $ 1700 billion, this second round is being referred to as “QE2”. The QE2 is being hailed as the kiss that will breathe new life into the US economy. In practical terms what the Fed Reserve has actually done is simply create, literally out of thin air, a bank balance of $ 600 billion in its own current account. The economists call this as debt financing. When my current account bank balance goes up it is usually after I have worked quite hard for a month and my employers send my salary from their account to mine as a compensation for my work. In other words, I have EARNED the credit and now I can spend it. This is by and large the mechanism by which ALL individuals or organizations throughout the world create wealth and operate their finances (at least all legal ones) . Governments don’t always work that way. They are above it all, like God, and can create things out of thin air. God said “Let There Be Light” and there was light. On Wednesday morning, Bernake & Co said “ Let There Be Money” and lo presto $ 600 billion dollars became available for the dubious “bond purchases”.

It is well to dwell a bit on this event which is raising so much expectation within the US and causing so much consternation in the emerging economies like China, India and Brazil.

Let’s review the facts. Despite astronomical and unprecedented financial injections into the US economy (QE1 = $ 1700 billion), the US unemployment rate remains at its highest since 1984. Consumer spending in the US is at its lowest in many years. The economy, it is feared, will be “deflationary” or shrink. This QE2 injection is expected to reverse this deflation by making money available cheaply to banks for lending and in turn to boost consumer spending. But who said banks don’t have money to lend? All the top banks in the US have returned to profit and are flush with funds. The likes of Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch turned in multibillion dollar profits for 2009 and multimillion dollar bonuses for their top exces. Even the black sheep of the banking community, Citibank, has shed all its fat and has returned to a modest profit. There are just no borrowers. It’s just that consumers and businesses don’t want to spend right now. So what will be the effect of this QE2 money? By most accounts, the huge infusion will cause the dollar to depreciate significantly and hence make US goods and services more competitive in the world market (now you know why China’s Commerce ministry is very upset with the QE2 - it makes their life difficult). Part of it will be invested within the US economy and generate fresh revenue streams and jobs. All this makes the QE2 sound like a wonderful thing for the American public, doesn’t it?

In fact what is most likely to happen is not so goody goody. A lot of the foreign reserves held by China ($ 1200 billion), India ($ 260 billion) and the rest of the world are in US Dollar currency. What the QE2 will do is reduce the value of these reserves (due to a depreciated dollar). This is unpalatable and will result in these emerging economies moving away from the dollar in the long run and cause a further erosion in the dollar value. The fact is that the US is no longer a net producer but rather a net consumer on the world scene. It is a fundamental truth of economics that unless your production of wealth keeps pace with your consumption of wealth, within reasonable limits, you are likely to end up as a sub-prime risk; and we all know how sub primes end up don’t we? By QE2 the US is increasing its long term chances of ending up as a sub-prime risk for itself and the world. Even in the short term the QE2 could well have very negative results. US funds are already flowing in large measure to foreign shores and it is feared by many that at least part of the QE2 funds will find their way to China and India and not be invested in the US at all. It is not very difficult to believe that the recent surge in market valuations in India are partly because the markets have already factored in the availability of the cheap QE2 money. At the Government level this sudden money flow could trigger what is being called as a “currency war” which threatens to escalate tensions between nations. Also the extent of the fund flows outside the US will restrict job creation within the US. So is the QE2 good at all? Probably not.

In the long run, a nation’s economy must be largely, if not wholly, self sufficient. The operative word being “self”. The reason America rose to prominence in the 20th century was due to its innovations as well as its domestic consumption. The reason why China and India are rising to prominence in the 21st century are also due to their own domestic innovations and consumption. As such if the US is facing hardships, it should look within to spur growth, and not try to spend its way out of it by debt financing. Already the fiscal deficit of the US is a matter of concern the world over. Continued US government excesses in the form of QE2 will dethrone the dollar from its position as the currency of choice. QE2, in the long run, will only hasten the exit of the dollar from the world stage. Austerity measures like the ones UK’s Government is taking are what are needed to save to US economy and the world economy at large.

The Fed’s desire to appear to take bold and concrete steps to stave off economic woes is laudable but sometimes no action is the best action. At the risk of sounding brutal, I would like to turn Marie Antoinette’s famous coinage on its head and say to Bernake & Co “If they don’t have cake, let them eat bread instead”. A little austerity never hurt anyone.

Vibhas Tattu hails from India and is a manufacturing engineer by profession. He has worked in India, USA and now in the United Arab Emirates. Vibhas is interested in Shakespeare, Indian music, poetry (English, Hindi and Marathi) and a new found love of writing.

Tattu has a bachelor’s degree in Production Engineering from the University of Bombay and Master’s degree in Industrial Engineering and Operations Research from the University of California at Berkeley, where he was a Fellow.

EMAIL: vibhas1@gmail.com


October 26, 2010

Romancing the Politico

By Angie Brenner


“We’ve got to work to knock down the barriers…” George W. Bush, October 15, 2002


It started with a full moon, the smell of the salty Pacific surf, and a candlelight dinner with a handsome man I’d dated forty years past. We toasted each other with glasses of Merlot, talked about past lives and our shared middle class youth in the Midwest, and how we ended up on different coasts: he in South Carolina, and me in California. The evening reminded me of many nights I’ve spent in Istanbul cafes with friends and lovers, where conversation flows easily from life to politics, to food, in a swirl of ideas that makes my head spin for days.
Somewhere between and wine and the Scampi, I lost myself in the romantic moment and diverted the conversation to the upcoming election and politics. I was just about to tell him about my newly found idea of figuring out which of the lesser candidates to vote for such as judges and supervisors, as well as confusing and contradicting Local and State Proposition. Here is my solution: Google the websites of the opposition and choose the candidate and propositions they are against.
Our conversation, however, never got this far. It didn’t get past my visible shock when my southern Republican friend asked me why I wouldn’t vote for Delaware Republican Senate candidate Christina O-Donnell; or his physical discomfort when I referred to being a Progressive.
Okay…I admit that this last comment was only to push the envelope. Politically, I’m actually disappointed with all parties, and wonder where we, as Americans, as people who care about democracy, have gotten so divergent. Is this the kind of conversation that the D.C. power couple, Democrat James Carvelle and Republican Mary Matalin, have every night over dinner?
While I finished the wine, he checked his watch. “We all want the same things,” I said, throwing out an olive branch. “But I have friends who are losing their homes.” I should have left well enough alone, but the wine was having an effect. “I still blame Bush for getting us into this economic mess. I remember thinking that when he said in a speech some years ago, that he ‘wanted every American to own their own home,’ what he really meant was that he wanted them to own a mortgage.
I was on a roll. I overheard the couple next seated next to us mention Obama, the Tea Party, and the Midterm elections. It was contagious. If we had been in an Istanbul café, we would have ordered another bottle of wine and even the waiter would be shouting opinions with us. But this was America, San Diego to be more specific. Then, my friend challenged me. “Show me that speech, I’d like to see it.”
The balmy evening ended, at best, with us agreeing to disagree. And with a nervous hug instead of a kiss.
When I returned home, It me took about two minutes to locate the speech on a VDare.com blog by Steve Sailer. It was so much more than I’d remembered:
President George W. Bush addresses the White House Conference on Increasing Minority Homeownership at The George Washington University Tuesday, Oct. 15, 2002

Foreclosure USA

THE PRESIDENT: …. I appreciate your attendance to this very important conference. You see, we want everybody in America to own their own home. That’s what we want. This is — an ownership society is a compassionate society.

More and more people own their homes in America today. Two-thirds of all Americans own their homes, yet we have a problem here in America because few than half of the Hispanics and half the African Americans own the home. That’s a homeownership gap. It’s a — it’s a gap that we’ve got to work together to close for the good of our country, for the sake of a more hopeful future.

We’ve got to work to knock down the barriers that have created a homeownership gap.

I set an ambitious goal. It’s one that I believe we can achieve. It’s a clear goal, that by the end of this decade we’ll increase the number of minority homeowners by at least 5.5 million families. (Applause.) … And it’s going to require a strong commitment from those of you involved in the housing industry. …
I appreciate so very much the home owners who are with us today, the Arias family, newly arrived from Peru. They live in Baltimore. Thanks to the Association of Real Estate Brokers, the help of some good folks in Baltimore, they figured out how to purchase their own home. Imagine to be coming to our country without a home, with a simple dream. And now they’re on stage here at this conference being one of the new home owners in the greatest land on the face of the Earth. I appreciate the Arias family coming. (Applause.)

We’ve got the Horton family from Little Rock, Arkansas, here today. … They were helped by HUD, they were helped by Freddie Mac. …

Finally, Kim Berry from New York is here. She’s a single mom. You’re not going to believe this, but her son is 18 years old. (Laughter.) She barely looked like she was 18 to me. And being a single mom is the hardest job in America. And the idea of this fine American working hard to provide for her child, at the same time working hard to realize her dream, which is owning a home on Long Island, is really a special tribute to the character of this particular person and to the character of a lot of Americans. So we’re honored to have you here, Kim, and thanks for being such a good mom and a fine American. (Applause.)

I told Mel Martinez I was serious about this initiative… And the good news is, Mel Martinez believes it and means it, as well. He’s doing a fine job of running HUD, and I’m glad he has joined my Cabinet. (Applause.)

And I picked a pretty spunky deputy, as well, Alphonso Jackson — my fellow Texan. (Applause.) I call him A.J. …

I see Rosario Marin, who’s the Treasurer of the United States. Rosario used to be a mayor. Thank you for coming, Madam Mayor. (Applause.) She understands how important housing is. …

All of us here in America should believe, and I think we do, that we should be, as I mentioned, a nation of owners. Owning something is freedom, as far as I’m concerned. It’s part of a free society. And ownership of a home helps bring stability to neighborhoods. You own your home in a neighborhood, you have more interest in how your neighborhood feels, looks, whether it’s safe or not. It brings pride to people, it’s a part of an asset-based to society. It helps people build up their own individual portfolio, provides an opportunity, if need be, for a mom or a dad to leave something to their child. It’s a part of — it’s of being a — it’s a part of — an important part of America.

Homeownership is also an important part of our economic vitality. If — when we meet this project, this goal, according to our Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, we will have added an additional $256 billion to the economy by encouraging 5.5 million new home owners in America; …

Low interest rates, low inflation are very important foundations for economic growth. The idea of encouraging new homeownership and the money that will be circulated as a result of people purchasing homes will mean people are more likely to find a job in America. This project not only is good for the soul of the country, it’s good for the pocketbook of the country, as well.

To open up the doors of homeownership there are some barriers, and I want to talk about four that need to be overcome. First, down payments. A lot of folks can’t make a down payment. They may be qualified. They may desire to buy a home, but they don’t have the money to make a down payment. I think if you were to talk to a lot of families that are desirous to have a home, they would tell you that the down payment is the hurdle that they can’t cross. And one way to address that is to have the federal government participate.

And so we’ve called upon Congress to set up what’s called the American Dream Down Payment Fund, which will provide financial grants to local governments to help first-time home buyers who qualify to make the down payment on their home. If a down payment is a problem, there’s a way we can address that. And when Congress funds the program, this should help 200,000 new families over the next five years become first-time home buyers.

Secondly, affordable housing is a problem in many neighborhoods, particularly inner-city neighborhoods. … I’m doing is proposing a single-family affordable housing credit to encourage the construction of single-family homes in neighborhoods where affordable housing is scarce. (Applause.)

Over the next five years the initiative will provide home builders and therefore home buyers with — home builders with $2 billion in tax credits to bring affordable homes and therefore provide an additional supply for home buyers. …

And we’ve got to set priorities. And one of the key priorities is going to be inner-city America. …

Another obstacle to minority homeownership is the lack of information. You know, getting into your own home can be complicated. It can be a difficult process. I had that very same problem. (Laughter and applause.)

Every home buyer has responsibilities and rights that need to be understood clearly. And yet, when you look at some of the contracts, there’s a lot of small print. And you can imagine somebody newly arrived from Peru looking at all that print, and saying, I’m not sure I can possibly understand that. Why do I want to buy a home? There’s an educational process that needs to go on, not only to explain the contract, explain obligation, but also to explain financing options, to help people understand the complexities of a homeownership market, and also at the same time to protect people from unscrupulous lenders, people who would take advantage of a good-hearted soul who is trying to realize their dream.

Homeownership education is critical. And so today, I’m pleased to announce that through Mel’s office, we’re going to distribute $35 million in 2003 to more than 100 national, state and local organizations that promote homeownership through buyer education. (Applause.)

And, of course, one of the larger obstacles to minority homeownership is financing, is the ability to have their dream financed. Right now, we have a program that all of you are familiar with, maybe our fellow Americans are, and that’s what they call a Section 8 housing program, that provides billions of dollars in vouchers to help low-income Americans with their rent. It encourages leasing. We think it’s important that we use those vouchers, that federal money to help low-income Americans go from being somebody who leases to somebody who owns; that we use the Section 8 program to not only help with down payment, but to help with continuing monthly mortgage payments after they’re into their new home. It is a — it is a way to help us meet this dream of 5.5 million additional families owning their home.

I’m also going to encourage the lending industry to develop a mortgage market so that this script, these vouchers, can regularly be used as a source of payment to provide more capital to lenders, who can then help more families move from rental housing into houses of their own. …

Last June, I issued a challenge to everyone involved in the housing industry to help increase the number of minority families to be home owners. And what I’m talking about, I’m talking about your bankers and your brokers and developers, as well as members of faith-based community and community programs. And the response to the home owners challenge has been very strong and very gratifying. Twenty-two public and private partners have signed up to help meet our national goal. Partners in the mortgage finance industry are encouraging homeownership by purchasing more loans made by banks to African Americans, Hispanics and other minorities.

Representatives of the real estate and homebuilding industries, through their nationwide networks or affiliates, are committed to broadening homeownership. They made the commitment to help meet the national goal we set.

Freddie Mae — Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — I see the heads who are here; I want to thank you all for coming — (laughter) — have committed to provide more money for lenders. They’ve committed to help meet the shortage of capital available for minority home buyers.

Fannie Mae recently announced a $50 million program to develop 600 homes for the Cherokee Nation in Oklahoma. Franklin [Raines], I appreciate that commitment. They also announced $12.7 million investment in a condominium project in Harlem. It’s the beginnings of a series of initiatives to help meet the goal of 5.5 million families. Franklin told me at the meeting where we kicked this office, he said, I promise you we will help, and he has, like many others in this room have done.

Freddie Mac recently began 25 initiatives around the country to dismantle barriers and create greater opportunities for homeownership. One of the programs is designed to help deserving families who have bad credit histories to qualify for homeownership loans. …

There’s all kinds of ways that we can work together to meet the goal. Corporate America has a responsibility to work to make America a compassionate place. Corporate America has responded. As an example — only one of many examples — the good folks at Sears and Roebuck have responded by making a five-year, $100 million commitment to making homeownership and home maintenance possible for millions of Americans. …

The non-profit groups are bringing homeownership to some of our most troubled communities. …

The other thing Kirbyjon told me, which I really appreciate, is you don’t have to have a lousy home for first-time home buyers. If you put your mind to it, the first-time home buyer, the low-income home buyer can have just as nice a house as anybody else. And I know Kirbyjon. He is what I call a social entrepreneur who is using his platform as a Methodist preacher to improve the neighborhood and the community in which he lives.

And so is Luis Cortes, who represents Nueva Esperanza in Philadelphia. I went to see Luis in the inner-city Philadelphia. … But he also understood that a homeownership program is incredibly important to revitalize this neighborhood that a lot of folks had already quit on. …

Again, I want to tell you, this is an initiative — as Mel will tell you, it’s an initiative that we take very seriously. … Thank you for coming. May God bless your vision. May God bless America. (Applause.)

June 21, 2010

THINKING OTHERWISE – Technical Hubris: and the Sinkhole of Obama’s Centrism

THINKING OTHERWISE – Technical Hubris: and the Sinkhole of Obama’s Centrism

by William Irwin Thompson

“We Irish think otherwise” Bishop Berkeley

Tower of Babel, Bruegel

When a technological enthusiast recently called for an undersea nuclear blast to seal the BP oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, I recalled another time some forty years ago, when another American engineer, fascinated by the entire moon’s vibration at the lift off of the Apollo moon capsule, called for an atomic blast on the moon to measure its scale of resonant vibration. It was, no doubt, an opportunity for a fascinating experiment, and our short-sleeved and short-sighted, flat-topped but unlevel-headed NASA engineer probably got off at the thought of shaking Mother Nature up a bit.

It never occurred to the lunatic engineer to consider that the moon’s orbit might be disturbed enough to be gravitationally attracted back to Earth, or displaced from its protective position for us on Earth as an attractor for asteroids; nor did it occur to the atomic bomb enthusiast that a tsunami might take out all the Florida Keys and coastal cities of the Gulf and poison the food chain for a quarter of a million years.

Speaking as a former MIT professor, I must say that the fact that two technicians could utter such nonsense indicates our great failing in the education of engineers, architects, and technical experts of all sorts. We Americans have an admirable “Can do!” mentality, but considering our fixing of Iraq and our present fixing of Afghanistan, it is time to step back, re-assess, and perhaps develop a new and humbler mentality, one that is no longer based on the World War Two mind-set of fixing the old world order with a new one based on atom bombs and Marshall Plans and newsreels of GI’s passing out Hershey bars to the admiring children standing to the side of history in their tattered European rags.

We need to think in a new way. When designing anything, the first thing we should ask is: What does the system excrete and how can we recycle that shadow-form into its on-going forms of production? The second question we should ask is: What are the ways the system can fail, and how can we make failure reinforce a process of correction and rescue?

All human systems fail at some point. Bowstrings snap, bullets jam, boilers explode, and airplanes crash. Deep sea oil rigs and nuclear reactors are simply too complex for Homo sapiens sapiens to be wise enough to manage. And if human cleverness is compromised by the greed and short-sightedness of a Halliburton or a BP and capitalism’s systemic purchase of government officials, then we are doubly exposed, as the surrounding system of management is not one of protection, but of menace.

In the Jeffersonian eighteenth-century agrarian vision of governance, “That government is best that governs least.” Since history has been said to repeat itself, the first time as tragedy, the second time as farce, Jefferson has found his farcical reprise with the contemporary Tea Partiers.

Because our TV instantiated short-term memories have robbed us of the long-term memory of history and the reflective ponderings of reading, our contemporary citizens, incited by Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News, are angry and threatened. But they do not direct their anger at the invisible forces that do actually threaten them–such as Goldman Sachs, Fox News, Halliburton, or BP; instead, they direct their anger into the channels suggested to them by the owners of the media. So birthers claim Obama is an alien and that his programs are socialist, when they are entirely centrist and completely lacking in the ability to re-vision our historical situation and energize a new paradigm of political and civilizational thinking.

Were the Tea Partiers and the fans of Sarah Palin reflective citizens and intelligent readers, they might be able to recall in the long-term memory of history the real conditions of life in an unrestrained world of free enterprise. There were twelve hour work days, child labor and no public education; there was no public health or safety requirements for the work place; there was no public inspection of meat factories or sea food and produce. What was indeed free and omnipresent was disease and death. Government was, and has become again, a more civil form of organized crime.

These were the good old days of the culture of the real America, before uppity blacks from Harvard and Latina judges from Princeton led the rural white Tea Partiers and Libertarians into this miasma of a multi-culti world.

President Obama ran his campaign on a program of hope and a renewed sense of the invincible American “Can do!” spirit with his incantatory slogan of “Yes, we can!” Readers of his book, Dreams from My Father, will recognize in his presidency the traits he showed early on as the nice young black man who learned how not to make elderly white women like his grandmother feel afraid. He was always an idealist, but never an ideologue. And so to save the economic system, he rescued the banks. To get health insurance passed by Congress, he appeased the medical insurance corporations. To keep the lights on for American cities and the American economy running on its airplanes, trucks, and SUVs, he has called for off-shore drilling and more nuclear reactors. Nowhere has he called for the re-visioning of industrial civilization, the rethinking of the global projection of American military power, and at no time has he recognized that our technological mentality is contributing to our extinction. While President Obama seeks to fix failed states in Pakistan and Afghanistan northern Mexico is fast becoming a failed state.The drug wars have opened a giant sinkhole that can swallow up the entire Southwest and turn El Paso, Tucson, and Los Angeles into other versions of Ciudad Juarez.

In fact, the sinkhole, like the black oil jet in the sea, has become an archetypal symbol of our new political landscape. Obama reached across the aisle in a spirit of rational compromise, but the aisle was only a red carpet over an abyss.

Sinkhole, Guatemala

William Irwin Thompson (born July, 1938) is known primarily as a social philosopher and cultural critic, but he has also been writing and publishing poetry throughout his career and received the Oslo International Poetry Festival Award in 1986. He has made significant contributions to cultural history, social criticism, the philosophy of science, and the study of myth. He is the founder of the Lindisfarne Association. In 2009, Wild River Books published his latest book, Still Travels: Three Long Poems. To order, click here: Wild River Books.

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