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October 27, 2008
Arts & Crafts
By
Fred Young
With so much pressure in
the news, I almost forgot that Halloween is just around the corner. My niece
sent me the first game and the Desk Jockey passed me the
second one.
Sarah Palin Paper
Doll Dress-up Game The only thing missing is a cash register!
Another few maps to
follow: Political
Pumpkin Carving
Pressure-filled times are
not relieved by bliss, disregard or neglect. The key to moving forward is to
incorporate our daily lessons into a cogent plan. Treat your plan like a
talisman and squeeze it a bit harder when the ill winds blow. The tense jaw will
then start to relax into a confident smile, confident in the knowledge that
this moment will not last forever.
Now go get a pumpkin and
have some fun. Put a light inside and put it on your porch or front window. Let
your friends and neighbors know that there is more to life than all that
pressure-filled news.
Fred Young is a Wharton-educated banking
executive with over 25 years in financial services. He is president of the Wild River Review advisory board. He encourages dialogue,
questions and contributions and can be reached at: Fyoung@wildriverreview.com
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October 25, 2008
By Joe
Glantz
As one contemplates which is going to fall faster, the stock
market or John McCain’s poll numbers, it’s time to remember that there are
Senate races to ponder. Can the Democrats actually beat Mitch McConnell? Will
they get the sixty votes to be filibuster proof? What party will Joe Lieberman
align himself with in November?
Which brings one to Al Franken’s run for the Senate against
Republican Norm Coleman and Independent Dean Barkley in Minnesota. Now I could
point out the reasons for my support are his Democratic politics. His support
for Israel. His taking on Rush Limbaugh and his Air-America Radio.
But that’s not really why I’m interested. What I like is that
he’s a comedian. The Senate is so full of people that you really get tired of
listening to. That’s because most politicians are interested in the content of
what is being said or not said, rather than the style. For me, I like the
style. A Bill Clinton who knows how to tell a Southern Story. I didn’t agree
with Regan but I liked his way of talking. Some politicians seem to get paid by
the word – might be the ones with a legal training. Others bombastic on cue.
Others too reserved – think Diane Feinstein.
And let’s be honest – Barack O’Bama seems like a nice
fellow, nice smile, but has he ever told a joke? No I want a guy like Franken
who not only is a nice follow but is an active member of the Independent Order of Odd Fellows (Manchester
Unity).[Wikipedia]. A society of Odd Fellows – is that something like my e-mail
address book. A guy who has known the shame of “Stuart Saves his Family” which
could be one of the worst movies ever – so he’s got to figure any speech he
ever gives can’t be worse than that.
Wouldn’t the filibusters be actually something to look
forward to? Who better to explain pork barrel than a comedic Minnesota Jew? I’d
kinda like to read a bill written by a comedian. Reminds of Ben Franklin’s take
on lawyers when he wrote a long-winded Petition which begins.
“Most humbly, and most submissively, and most
obediently, and most dutifully, by shewing, and expressing, and
declaring to your Lordship, that whereby, and whereas, and wherein, the most major, and most greater, and most bigger, and the most stronger
Part of the most best, and the most ablet, and the most mightiest
Sort of the People of the Barony of Torrough and County of Kerry…”
You get the drift. I’d like to read a bill like that.
Cocktail parties might be kind of interesting. Politicians
always like to start off with a joke. Does that mean Franken has to start off
with a serious point? I like the ideas of comedians interrogating witnesses. A
doctor, a lawyer and an engineer walk into a bar. Wait, that’s our panel for
today.
Who knows maybe it will set a trend. Tina Fey could move
back to Pennsylvania and run for Arlen Specter’s seat when he retires. Darrell
Hammond could move back to Florida and run for a Southern Seat. If only
George Carlin were alive to run for a Senate seat in New York. Is it
proper to censor a politician? I’d really like Jerry Lewis – Madam
Chairwomanpersonlaaaady. Yeah, that’s the ticket as Senator John Lovitz
might say. And call me a wild and crazy guy but Steve Martin in California
strikes as a possibility.
Then there’s Will Ferrell. He could… well OK maybe there are
some old Saturday Night pros who were meant for even greener pastures.
Al Franken for Senate. When your portfolio is down to zero.
When the Huns are knocking at your door. Who better to relieve the stress than
a comedian? Did you hear the one about the …
Joseph
Glantz,
Consulting
Editor, Wild River Review
Author, Interviews with
the Famously Departed
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October 23, 2008
by Bill Gaston Politics
Editor–Wild River Review
In
her spirited but unsuccessful run for the Democratic nomination, Hillary
Clinton had no fiercer bulldog in her corner than Howard Wolfson. The
all-hardball, all-the-time pugnacity of the former Clinton Communications
Director sent shivers up the spines of Obama supporters. Of course, it may seem
like ancient history now, but in the hard-fought Pennsylvania primary back in
April, it was Wolfson who stoked
the issue of Barack’s controversial “bitter” comments on Hillary’s working
class supporters, helping to send Obama down to a painful defeat. Noone
outshone Wolfson when it came to his loyalty to Hillary and his well-honed
practice of bare-knuckled, culture-war politics.
Well,
now that Hillary’s campaign is history, Howard, now a Fox News contributor, has
had his ‘Road
to Damascus’ moment. Still smarting from Hillary’s defeat, Wolfson
wrote a much talked about Op-Ed
in the Washington Post, embracing Obama’s nomination and signaling
that he was ready to turn over a new leaf. In it, he wrote:
“For 18
months, I listened to Obama on television, sometimes intently,
often just barely — background noise to a running series of conference calls
and meetings and e-mails. In person, my attention undivided, I saw something of
what so many others had seen for so long.”
Progress in
America is never cheap, and even today history exacts a price for Obama’s
victory — the dreams of electing the first female president, the dreams of so
many who rushed toward Hillary Clinton on rope lines across America and refused
to give up her hand and their hopes. Today these dreams are giving way to
another kind of progress. For me, the presidential campaign began in a crowded
Iowa hall, where I saw a man my age lift up a daughter around my daughter’s age
and tell her that one day she could be president. Last week things came nearly
full circle, when I saw another man my age lift up another child and say the
very same thing.”
In this week’s The
New Republic, Wolfson writes that an Obama victory
may finally put a stake through the festering wounds of culture war politics,
captured so brilliantly in Rick Perlstein’s masterpiece Nixonland. By all means, read Howard’s piece, and see
if you agree.
Bill Gaston is an analyst with
the New York City government, a former editor at Institutional Investor
Magazine, and a freelance writer on political and economic affairs. Bill
received his BA from George Washington University, and MA from Columbia
University’s School of International and Public Affairs.
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October 21, 2008
I was moved by Colin Powell’s
recent interview/statement on “Meet the Press”. His endorsement aside, the following section of the interview really hit me:
I’m
also troubled by, not what Senator McCain says, but what members of the party
say. And it is permitted to be said such things as, “Well, you know that Mr.
Obama is a Muslim.”
Well,
the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim; he’s a Christian. He’s always been a
Christian.
But
the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being
a Muslim in this country? The answer’s no, that’s not America.
Is
there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing
that he or she could be president?
Yet,
I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, “He’s a Muslim
and he might be associated terrorists.” This is not the way we should be doing
it in America.
I
feel strongly about this particular point because of a picture I saw in a
magazine. It was a photo essay about troops who are serving in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
And
one picture at the tail end of this photo essay was of a mother in Arlington
Cemetery, and she had her head on the headstone of her son’s grave. And as the
picture focused in, you could see the writing on the headstone. And it gave his
awards — Purple Heart, Bronze Star — showed that he died in Iraq, gave his
date of birth, date of death. He was 20 years old.
And then, at the very top of the headstone, it didn’t
have a Christian cross; it didn’t have the Star of David; it had crescent and a
star of the Islamic faith. And his name was Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, and he
was an American. He was born in New Jersey. He was 14 years old at the time of
9/11, and he waited until he can go serve his country, and he gave his life.
This made me look for the
photo. Source Sep 29 New Yorker magazine
For expedience sake we put
things in boxes. The boxes serve a purpose in this hectic world as our need to
recall things is challenged by a world of too much information. But so often;
we are stuck in the boxes, we let things stay in the box too long. Or they just
go stale.
I can easily connect this to
the managing of our own savings accounts. We either open the box too much or we
disregard the box because it is “too complicated”.
This essay is on growth and
moving forward. It is about incorporation and evolution. Regardless of the
outcome of the upcoming election, until we all celebrate differences rather
than revile; change is just a word.
Fred Young is a Wharton-educated
banking executive with over 25 years in financial services. He is president of
the Wild
River Review advisory board. He encourages dialogue,
questions and contributions and can be reached at:Fyoung@wildriverreview.com
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Comments Off
I was moved by Colin Powell’s
recent interview/statement on “Meet the Press”. His endorsement aside, the following section of the interview really hit me:
I’m
also troubled by, not what Senator McCain says, but what members of the party
say. And it is permitted to be said such things as, “Well, you know that Mr.
Obama is a Muslim.”
Well,
the correct answer is, he is not a Muslim; he’s a Christian. He’s always been a
Christian.
But
the really right answer is, what if he is? Is there something wrong with being
a Muslim in this country? The answer’s no, that’s not America.
Is
there something wrong with some seven-year-old Muslim-American kid believing
that he or she could be president?
Yet,
I have heard senior members of my own party drop the suggestion, “He’s a Muslim
and he might be associated terrorists.” This is not the way we should be doing
it in America.
I
feel strongly about this particular point because of a picture I saw in a
magazine. It was a photo essay about troops who are serving in Iraq and
Afghanistan.
And
one picture at the tail end of this photo essay was of a mother in Arlington
Cemetery, and she had her head on the headstone of her son’s grave. And as the
picture focused in, you could see the writing on the headstone. And it gave his
awards — Purple Heart, Bronze Star — showed that he died in Iraq, gave his
date of birth, date of death. He was 20 years old.
And then, at the very top of the headstone, it didn’t
have a Christian cross; it didn’t have the Star of David; it had crescent and a
star of the Islamic faith. And his name was Kareem Rashad Sultan Khan, and he
was an American. He was born in New Jersey. He was 14 years old at the time of
9/11, and he waited until he can go serve his country, and he gave his life.
This made me look for the
photo. Source Sep 29 New Yorker magazine
For expedience sake we put
things in boxes. The boxes serve a purpose in this hectic world as our need to
recall things is challenged by a world of too much information. But so often;
we are stuck in the boxes, we let things stay in the box too long. Or they just
go stale.
I can easily connect this to
the managing of our own savings accounts. We either open the box too much or we
disregard the box because it is “too complicated”.
This essay is on growth and
moving forward. It is about incorporation and evolution. Regardless of the
outcome of the upcoming election, until we all celebrate differences rather
than revile; change is just a word.
Fred Young is a Wharton-educated
banking executive with over 25 years in financial services. He is president of
the Wild
River Review advisory board. He encourages dialogue,
questions and contributions and can be reached at:Fyoung@wildriverreview.com
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Comments Off
October 17, 2008
Spread
It Out and Look to the Horizon
by Fred Young
“Be fearful when others are
greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. And most certainly, fear is now
widespread, gripping even seasoned investors. To be sure, investors are right
to be wary of highly leveraged entities or businesses in weak competitive
positions. But fears regarding the long-term prosperity of the nation’s many
sound companies make no sense.”
Warren Buffett, BUY
AMERICAN, I AM NYT Op-Ed Oct 16, 2008
I read Mr. Buffet’s comments and
yelled a loud – “Yeah”. I reread the article and I was troubled. In the article he makes it clear that his
personal investment portfolio was entirely in US Treasury Bonds, and that his ownership in
Berkshire Hathaway is in his philanthropic account. In other words, his
fantastic wealth in Berkshire all goes to non-profits, endowments and charities
- incredibly admirable.
The troubling aspect is that he
claims 100% of his personal $ is in bonds – no diversification. Bonds by definition are not intended
for growth; rather they are intended for income and preservation of principal.
So, from these words he has 100% in one thing. Like Ross Perot, who claimed the
same non-diversified investment approach, that lack of diversification works when your pile of money is large. I might understand the approach if I had $1 Billion+ in my savings account. I
might be more concerned with holding on to what I have and care little about growing it more. But that is not the case with most of
the rest of us.
We put away a little now and hope it keeps pace with inflation so that when we need it, it has kept pace with the cost of living. Having a growth component is vital to our savings plans.
This is a drumbeat. Patience,
controlling fear/greed and look to the long term are the parts of Mr. Buffet’s
comments that cannot be reinforced enough. But Diversification is also very important.
There is a another subtle unintended message Mr. Buffett is putting out there – try and “time the market”.
There is an often-referenced study
(University of Michigan Finance Prof H. Nejat Seyhun) that found that a
portfolio in the broad stock market yielded an average annual return of 11.83%
over a 30-year period (1963 through 1993). Before you jump and say that was a
generation ago, get this – if during that 30 years you pulled your $ out during
10 of those 7,802 days your return dropped to 10.17%. If you stepped out 90
days (or 1% of the time) you would drop to 3.82% per year. Inflation during those years was over 5% per year.
The point of this story can be
best exemplified in just this past year. In the last year oil has been as low as
$70/barrel and as high as $144. Gold has been as low as $725 an ounce and as
high as $1,028. Mr. Buffett does point out that trying to predict short-term
movements in the market is a fool’s game.
I said in my post the other day,
my own portfolio has taken a hit this year and there is one big culprit -
international and emerging market stocks. That is the nature of these two asset
classes. They swing wildly. For a few years they cranked along at 35%+ annual
growth so following Newton’s law – this is the equal and opposite reaction.
That is no reason to try and time these things.
Like Mr. Buffett I have faith in
the long term, now just don’t forget to spread things out. Quoting my Mother
“too much milk is a bad thing”.
Fred Young is a Wharton-educated banking executive with
over 25 years in financial services and he the president of the Wild River Review
advisory board. He encourages dialogue, questions
and contributions and can be reached at: Fyoung@wildriverreview.com
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October 15, 2008
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